Trouble ahead, but this is no Maastricht
Peter Riddell: Political Briefing

Here we go again. A controversial Bill on a European treaty is commended by the Government as a means of improving the EU, and condemned by its critics as a step towards a superstate. Opponents demand a referendum, which the Government rejects. Maastricht 1992-93, or Lisbon 2008?

Parallels with the Maastricht battles should not be overdone. Professor Philip Cowley of Nottingham University, the leading chronicler of Commons revolts, has noted three key differences.

First, the Major Government’s majority was 21, and falling, and was outnumbered by Tory opponents of the Bill. The Labour majority is now about 70 (after taking account of the absent Sinn Fein MPs) and the total of Labour rebels is lower on any realistic estimate. For instance the Bill on the EU budget, reducing the British rebate, passed easily last week with only five Labour MPs rebelling during its entire passage. By contrast, the equivalent measure in 1994 was treated as a vote of confidence in face of much larger opposition.

Secondly, the Labour Eurosceptics are, so far, less passionate than the Tory Maastricht rebels. Consequently, and thirdly, unlike 1992-93, when the Major Government lost control over the passage of the Bill and the issue rumbled on for nearly a year, this will not happen now. There will be five weeks or so of debates on the Lisbon Bill, but they will not undermine the rest of the Government’s legislative programme.

Moreover, for all the talk about Europe dividing both parties, the splits now are smaller than in the past. Labour and the Tories are more cohesive, for and against. Of course, there will be many revolts and excitements and there is always scope for unpredictable alliances on aspects of the Bill.

The key vote will be on a referendum, where the result could be tight, but the Government should win because Nick Clegg has said that the Liberal Democrats will not vote for a referendum on the treaty, although a handful of his MPs may do so. The Lib Dems favour an in-out ballot on Britain’s position in the EU. In the Lords, there will be more Labour supporters of a referendum but also many more Tory opponents of one.

So the Government should get its Bill. Of course, these tactical questions are irrelevant to those who denounce the Bill for its transfer of powers to Brussels (largely ignoring the greater role for national parliaments and intergovernmental provisions) and who regard the absence of a referendum as a betrayal after Labour’s promise of one on the original EU constitution. David Miliband and Mr Clegg have a case that the current treaty is different, both in form and in the renegotiated opt-outs on justice and home affairs, but this sounds all too like special pleading and evasion.

The political impact may be less to do with what happens in Parliament over the coming months, and more about whether Tory charges of betrayal by Gordon Brown and loss of trust stick with voters. There are risks for David Cameron, too, if Tory critics appear too obsessive and Europhobic, especially if the treaty has been ratified by the rest of Europe by the next election. So for all the heat and lengthy debates, the Lisbon Bill looks unlikely to be another Maastricht.

Vote plans
France Rejected EU constitution in referendum. Have no plans for referendum on Lisbon treaty
Netherlands Rejected constitution in referendum. No plans for referendum on Lisbon
Ireland Delayed referendum on EU constitution. Likely to be only country to hold referendum on Lisbon
Portugal Also delayed referendum on constitution. Ruled out vote on reform treaty
Hungary The first country to ratify Lisbon treaty after a vote in its parliament last month